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April 16, 2006

Shelley Palmer in Cable Vs. The Unknown:

There were at least 1,500 professional cable industry types in the audience, and they were asked to vote on the following:

"What or who will be your biggest day-to-day competition in three years from today?"

Now remember, the audience is full of cable people (many of who do not know how to send a text message with a short message code, but that's for another column). They chose from five possibilities, and here are the results:

DirecTV--37 percent
Google--0 percent
Municipal Wi-Fi--10 percent
Something not yet invented--25 percent

It's not surprising that almost 40 percent of the cable industry audience thinks that satellite companies will still be their biggest competitors in three years. It's a little surprising that they give the telcos as much credit as they did--since it is physically impossible for the telcos to deploy and market that much television product in that amount of time. But what blew my mind was the 35 percent of the audience who thought that municipal Wi-Fi or something not yet invented was going to be the source of the biggest day-to-day competition in three years time. And, to that end --the idea that Google would not enter into their competitive equation.

I wonder if they asked what the biggest oppportunities were.

How many cable customers would trade all their current television service for symmetrical high-speed fiber service to their homes? How much will that number change in the next five years?