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December 04, 2004

Follow the money... if you can find it
There's a mesmerizing exchange going on among lots of smart people looking for where the money will be in this explosion of citizens' media (which, in this case, I broadly define as media controlled by citizens).

My quick answer: I don't know. Wish I did. But I don't.

The problem in this world -- besides it being so young, which is when the really big bets are won and lost -- is that the new things coming along now often destroy money instead of merely shifting it. CraigsList gives control to the people so they stop paying for "services" they used to pay for. There's a lot of that going on. There will be a lot more. And it will have huge if sometimes left-field impact on various industries.

The only rule I can come up with is my First Law of Media (and Life): Bet on that which gives citizens control. And bet against those who try to maintain control apart from the public.

By that rule, mass-market TV is shrinking, niche content, aka cable (a proxy for control) is growing and so is the internet. The paid music business is shrinking, the free exchange of music is growing. And so on.

The correspondents in this discussion so far include Steve Smith, who writes a provocative column with his guesses, then Steve Rubel, Tom Watson, and Jason Calacanis, who respond to him, and then Fred Wilson, who wisely sits back and watches and then responds to them all. The nominees for the game of where-the-money-is-going, starting with Smith's list:

(Continued at BuzzMachine)

Posted by yatta at 12:46 PM