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September 01, 2004

Rich Genius Poor Genius

Clayton P. Knowles, Jr. once said, "A poor genius is two years ahead of his time, a rich genius is six months ahead of his time." This should probably be known as "Knowles Law" because it is always true!

"Twenty years from now, everyone's going to be getting all their video mostly from the Internet," says Steve Shannon, founder of Akimbo Systems Inc. "You see it happening with music. You see it happening with phone service. Video is next." Is Steve two years or six months ahead of his time? That's the only question this new Video over IP service has to answer.

Although they are the newest start-up touting video dominance over the net, they are not alone. TiVo, SBC/Echo and Microsoft all have Set Top Box/Internet schemas to deliver MPEG2, MPEG4 or WM9 quality video over broadband. Two years or six months ... humm ...

My guess is that all "separate" set top box ideas will ultimately fail. People just seem to have an aversion to extra boxes that they have to pay for. Integrated boxes, or, better yet, sets are IP compatible or that are "all-in-one" devices should have a better chance. According to CTAM a third of cable subs don't have set top boxes now. This is a very interesting statistic. It says that millions of cable subs either don't want additional features, don't want to pay or don't want a box on their sets. You would think that economics would be driving this stat, but, as it turns out, consumers were more likely to agree to technologies that didn't have extra boxes - go figure!


Posted by yatta at 12:00 PM